Connect with us

The Future

These 3 Computing Technologies Will Beat Moore’s Law

Published

on

There’s a big lie about disruption going around. And folks aren’t spreading it intentionally.

Many smart investors I talk to genuinely believe it to be the truth.

If you accept this widespread lie, you’ll likely make poor decisions when investing in disruptive companies.

Here, I’ll explain the real truth and why it matters to disruption investors.

Your Smartphone Is More Powerful than an Early ‘90s Supercomputer

Your smartphone can do the job of a whole collection of gadgets.

It’s a phone, camera, camcorder, Walkman, watch, wallet, radio, global map, TV, VCR, and computer all in one.

And keep in mind, all a supercomputer does is crunch numbers. We have “Moore’s law” to thank for this.

Named after Intel founder Gordon Moore, it observes that computing power doubles roughly every two years.

This has led to exponential growth in computing power.

As you may know, exponential growth “snowballs” over time. It builds momentum and eventually leads to vertical gains, as you can see here:

uncaptioned

For the past few decades, computing power has more or less followed this path.

This Is the Driving Force Behind Moore’s Law

Moore’s Law says the number of transistors that can fit on a computer chip doubles about every two years.

Transistors allow computers to compute. The more transistors you cram onto a chip, the more computing power it has.

Again, for the past 50 years, this has more or less held true. Back in 1965, only 64 transistors fit on the world’s most complex computer chip.

More than 10 billion transistors can fit on today’s chips.

Moore’s law is responsible for many of the giant stock market gains in the past few decades.

Leaps in computing power enabled big disruptors like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon to achieve huge gains like 50,800%, 159,900%, and 111,560%.

And along the way, the companies that make the computer chips have gotten rich, too.

Taiwan Semiconductor, Micron Technology, and Intel achieved gains of 1,014%, 3,256%, and 35,050%.

Conventional wisdom is that Moore’s law will continue to snowball. As progress gets faster and faster, you can understand why many folks think we’re headed for a tech utopia.

It’s a great story. But it’s not quite true.

Moore’s Law Will Break Down

Moore’s law isn’t really a law. Gravity is a law. Moore’s law is an observation and a forecast.

As I mentioned, since 1965, it has held true. But here’s the key…

Within the next few years, Moore’s law will break down.

You see, although today’s transistors are microscopic, they still take up physical space. There’s a limit to how small you can make anything that occupies physical space.

We are now approaching that limit with transistors. So the progress predicted by Moore’s law must slow.

In fact, Moore’s law is already slowing down. Many technologists predict it will totally break down between 2022–2025.

Does that mean progress will stop?

Not a chance.

New technologies will pick up where Moore’s law leaves off. There are three exciting computing technologies in development you should know about.

3D Computing Hits the Market Later This Year

What does a city do when it runs short on land? It builds skyscrapers.

By building “up,” you can create real estate with the footprint of a one-story building, but one that holds 100X more people.

Something similar is just getting underway in computing.

You see, the “guts” of computers have always been two dimensional. Flat computer chips sit on a flat motherboard. Nothing moves in 3D. There’s no “up” or “down” inside a computer chip.

That’s now changing. In December, Intel (INTC) introduced its new 3D chip technology. It plans to begin selling it later this year.

Tech reporters are touting it as “how Intel will beat Moore’s law.”

Chips stacked in 3D are far superior to ones placed side by side. Not only can you fit multiples of transistors in the same footprint. You can better integrate all the chip’s functions.

This shortens the distance information needs to travel. And it creates many more pathways for information to flow.

The result will be much more speed and power packed into a small space. Eventually, 3D chips could be 1,000 times faster than existing ones.

DNA Computing Is a Bit Further off, but Its Potential Is Mind-Boggling

DNA carries the instructions that enable life.

As incredible as it sounds, DNA can be used for computing. In 1994, a computer scientist at the University of Southern California used DNA to solve a well-known mathematical problem.

One pound of DNA has the capacity to store more information than all the computers ever built.

A thumbnail-size DNA computer could theoretically be more powerful than today’s supercomputers.

I won’t get deep into the science here. DNA computing is still very early stage. But several companies, including Microsoft (MSFT), are working to push the technology forward.

Quantum Computing Could Be the Ultimate Disruption

The science behind quantum computing will bend your mind. To understand its potential, all you really need to know is this.

The basic unit of conventional computation is the bit. The more bits a computer has, the more calculations it can perform at once, and the more powerful it is.

With quantum computing, the basic unit of computation is called a quantum bit—or qubit.

Bits behave linearly. To get a 20-bit computer, you might add 2+2+2+2+2+2+2+2+2+2.

Qubits are different. Every qubit doubles computing power.

So, a 10-qubit computer could do 2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2 calculations at once, or 1,024.

A 100-qubit quantum computer could perform over 1,000 billion billion billion simultaneous calculations. Those numbers are too big for humans to comprehend.

In theory, a small quantum computer could exceed the power of a regular computer the size of the Milky Way galaxy.

With enough computing firepower, a quantum computer could solve any problem.

If we ever achieve far-out goals like controlling the weather, colonizing Mars, or reversing human aging, quantum computing will likely be the driving force.

There Are No Pure-Play Quantum Computing Stocks

They’re all private or have been scooped up by larger companies.

Many of the big tech players are developing quantum computing technology. Microsoft, IBM, Google (GOOG), and Intel are a few.

Google looks to be in the lead.

In March 2018, it unveiled its Bristlecone quantum processor, which the company thinks could achieve “quantum supremacy.”

Quantum supremacy is the “tipping point” for quantum computing. It’s the point when a quantum computer can beat a regular one in a useful task.

So far, scientists haven’t been able to crack this. But once quantum supremacy is reached, progress should take off very quickly.

This is yet another great reason to consider investing in Google.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenmcbride1/2019/04/23/these-3-computing-technologies-will-beat-moores-law/#d14179a37b0b

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

The Future

Google Streaming Game Service Stadia To Be Launched November 19

Published

on

By

Google on Tuesday said it will launch its Stadia streaming game service on November 19, hoping to launch console-quality play into the cloud.

The announcement came at a Google event in New York where the tech giant was unveiling an array of new hardware products.

Stadia allows video gameplay on any internet-connected device, eliminating the need for games consoles.

It will be priced at $9.99 per month and compete against Apple Arcade, which is being offered at half that price.

Streaming real-time gameplay from the cloud promised to shake up a mushrooming market worth an estimated $135 billion globally last year, according to analysts — with mobile platforms accounting for about half.

Continue Reading

The Future

iPhone SE 2 and Apple AR headset landing in 2020, says noted analyst

Published

on

By

Last month, we reported that an iPhone SE successor could be released in early 2020. Now, noted Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is getting in on that sweet iPhone SE prognostication action, with his latest Chinese-language report suggesting that very same thing, as reported by 9to5Google.

Along with a second generation mini Apple handset, Kuo had a couple of additional 2020-based predictions to make, forecasting the arrival of a new iPad Pro and Apple’s long-rumored AR headset for good measure.

As per previous reports, iPhone SE 2 is expected to be similar in design and hardware specification to 2017’s iPhone 8, only with the upgraded A13 Bionic chipset found in the iPhone 11 instead of an A11 Bionic, and will likely be released sometime in Q1 2020.

As for a new iPad Pro, Kuo believes that’ll also drop in the first quarter of next year, sporting a rear-facing 3D time-of-flight (ToF) camera sensor for increased accuracy in depth-of-field photography and (presumably) for use with augmented reality.

Speaking of augmented reality, Kuo also believes that hotly anticipated Apple AR glasses may finally be unveiled next year, with the analyst predicting a release during the second quarter of 2020. Kuo’s projection comes only a month after Apple’s AR headset was seemingly leaked in the iOS 13 code.

As always, it’s best to take any analyst’s report on future tech products with a grain of salt. However, it’s worth noting that Kuo’s predictions have proven accurate in the past.

Source: https://www.techradar.com/news/iphone-se-2-and-apple-ar-headset-landing-in-2020-says-noted-analyst

Continue Reading

The Future

Sony patent points to next-gen PlayStation VR

Published

on

By

Sony’s patent for a new PlayStation VR headset depicts several new features which may turn up in a next-gen version of the device.

The filing (dug up by LetsGoDigital, the same site which unearthed Sony’s patent for the PlayStation 5 dev kit), originates from February 2019 but has only been made public this week.

Images show plans for a PSVR headset which includes two front and one rear cameras. A further camera is included on a PlayStation Move-style controller.

These headset cameras are in addition to the LEDs installed around the current unit. A microphone will again be included. There’s also the option for a further, separate camera to track the user’s movements – like the PlayStation Camera or Kinect.

1

Most excitingly, perhaps, is the mention the headset could be operated wirelessly, with data sent and received by Bluetooth. This would mean the unit also includes its own power supply.

One final point is the ability for the headset to show a “transparent” view – made possible by those front-facing cameras – so you could see your surroundings through the screen. Images from both of these cameras can be displayed at the same time, one per eye, producing a stereoscopic 3D effect. Alternatively, they could be used to overlay AR effects on your real-world surroundings.

Sony has pledged that all current PSVR headsets will work with PS5. But it still makes sense that PlayStation will also update its ageing virtual reality tech with a more advanced model. Whether this headset will simply offer more precise movement tracking and wire-free play, or if certain VR games will demand a newer model – well, that’s for Sony to decide.

In other news, PlayStation 5 will be called PlayStation 5 and it’ll arrive in time for Christmas 2020.

Source: https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2019-10-09-sony-patent-points-to-next-gen-playstation-vr

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending

%d bloggers like this: