There’s a big lie about disruption going around. And folks aren’t spreading it intentionally.
Many smart investors I talk to genuinely believe it to be the truth.
If you accept this widespread lie, you’ll likely make poor decisions when investing in disruptive companies.
Here, I’ll explain the real truth and why it matters to disruption investors.
Your Smartphone Is More Powerful than an Early ‘90s Supercomputer
Your smartphone can do the job of a whole collection of gadgets.
It’s a phone, camera, camcorder, Walkman, watch, wallet, radio, global map, TV, VCR, and computer all in one.
And keep in mind, all a supercomputer does is crunch numbers. We have “Moore’s law” to thank for this.
Named after Intel founder Gordon Moore, it observes that computing power doubles roughly every two years.
This has led to exponential growth in computing power.
As you may know, exponential growth “snowballs” over time. It builds momentum and eventually leads to vertical gains, as you can see here:
For the past few decades, computing power has more or less followed this path.
This Is the Driving Force Behind Moore’s Law
Moore’s Law says the number of transistors that can fit on a computer chip doubles about every two years.
Transistors allow computers to compute. The more transistors you cram onto a chip, the more computing power it has.
Again, for the past 50 years, this has more or less held true. Back in 1965, only 64 transistors fit on the world’s most complex computer chip.
More than 10 billion transistors can fit on today’s chips.
Moore’s law is responsible for many of the giant stock market gains in the past few decades.
Leaps in computing power enabled big disruptors like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon to achieve huge gains like 50,800%, 159,900%, and 111,560%.
And along the way, the companies that make the computer chips have gotten rich, too.
Taiwan Semiconductor, Micron Technology, and Intel achieved gains of 1,014%, 3,256%, and 35,050%.
Conventional wisdom is that Moore’s law will continue to snowball. As progress gets faster and faster, you can understand why many folks think we’re headed for a tech utopia.
It’s a great story. But it’s not quite true.
Moore’s Law Will Break Down
Moore’s law isn’t really a law. Gravity is a law. Moore’s law is an observation and a forecast.
As I mentioned, since 1965, it has held true. But here’s the key…
Within the next few years, Moore’s law will break down.
You see, although today’s transistors are microscopic, they still take up physical space. There’s a limit to how small you can make anything that occupies physical space.
We are now approaching that limit with transistors. So the progress predicted by Moore’s law must slow.
In fact, Moore’s law is already slowing down. Many technologists predict it will totally break down between 2022–2025.
Does that mean progress will stop?
Not a chance.
New technologies will pick up where Moore’s law leaves off. There are three exciting computing technologies in development you should know about.
3D Computing Hits the Market Later This Year
What does a city do when it runs short on land? It builds skyscrapers.
By building “up,” you can create real estate with the footprint of a one-story building, but one that holds 100X more people.
Something similar is just getting underway in computing.
You see, the “guts” of computers have always been two dimensional. Flat computer chips sit on a flat motherboard. Nothing moves in 3D. There’s no “up” or “down” inside a computer chip.
That’s now changing. In December, Intel (INTC) introduced its new 3D chip technology. It plans to begin selling it later this year.
Tech reporters are touting it as “how Intel will beat Moore’s law.”
Chips stacked in 3D are far superior to ones placed side by side. Not only can you fit multiples of transistors in the same footprint. You can better integrate all the chip’s functions.
This shortens the distance information needs to travel. And it creates many more pathways for information to flow.
The result will be much more speed and power packed into a small space. Eventually, 3D chips could be 1,000 times faster than existing ones.
DNA Computing Is a Bit Further off, but Its Potential Is Mind-Boggling
DNA carries the instructions that enable life.
As incredible as it sounds, DNA can be used for computing. In 1994, a computer scientist at the University of Southern California used DNA to solve a well-known mathematical problem.
One pound of DNA has the capacity to store more information than all the computers ever built.
A thumbnail-size DNA computer could theoretically be more powerful than today’s supercomputers.
I won’t get deep into the science here. DNA computing is still very early stage. But several companies, including Microsoft (MSFT), are working to push the technology forward.
Quantum Computing Could Be the Ultimate Disruption
The science behind quantum computing will bend your mind. To understand its potential, all you really need to know is this.
The basic unit of conventional computation is the bit. The more bits a computer has, the more calculations it can perform at once, and the more powerful it is.
With quantum computing, the basic unit of computation is called a quantum bit—or qubit.
Bits behave linearly. To get a 20-bit computer, you might add 2+2+2+2+2+2+2+2+2+2.
Qubits are different. Every qubit doubles computing power.
So, a 10-qubit computer could do 2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2 calculations at once, or 1,024.
A 100-qubit quantum computer could perform over 1,000 billion billion billion simultaneous calculations. Those numbers are too big for humans to comprehend.
In theory, a small quantum computer could exceed the power of a regular computer the size of the Milky Way galaxy.
With enough computing firepower, a quantum computer could solve any problem.
If we ever achieve far-out goals like controlling the weather, colonizing Mars, or reversing human aging, quantum computing will likely be the driving force.
There Are No Pure-Play Quantum Computing Stocks
They’re all private or have been scooped up by larger companies.
Many of the big tech players are developing quantum computing technology. Microsoft, IBM, Google (GOOG), and Intel are a few.
Google looks to be in the lead.
In March 2018, it unveiled its Bristlecone quantum processor, which the company thinks could achieve “quantum supremacy.”
Quantum supremacy is the “tipping point” for quantum computing. It’s the point when a quantum computer can beat a regular one in a useful task.
So far, scientists haven’t been able to crack this. But once quantum supremacy is reached, progress should take off very quickly.
This is yet another great reason to consider investing in Google.
SAMSUNG PATENT SHOWS A POSSIBLE GALAXY S11 DESIGN WITH A LARGE SCREEN
In the fight for design, we have seen quite interesting designs in 2019. Several foldable devices have been presented. The most important being those announced by Huawei and Samsung. Today again we can talk about phone designs that seemed impossible a while ago. Samsung has presented a new patent for a device with an expandable screen.
A special feature of this model is the possibility to extend the width of the phone. After which the screen surface is estimated to be increased by around 50%. There is, unfortunately, no detailed description included that answers the question of how this smartphone can be pulled out. The images do show that the screen on the right is enlarged. The frame border around the screen also shifts partially, so that the flexible display remains well protected against external influences.
It is not the same as foldable phones, because at no time the screens of this prototype are folded as in the Galaxy Fold or Huawei Mate X. It is too early to talk about a real device, although Samsung wants to bet on something like this according to its patent.
At the moment, the mobile industry is going through a time when designs take a big part of the client’s decision. Brands like Samsung are changing some designs in the high range. This year they have included screen holes in the Galaxy S series. Join GizChina on Telegram
THIS COULD BE THE SAMSUNG GALAXY S11 DESIGN
The design patent was filed by Samsung Electronics at the end of 2018 with the KIPO (Korean Intellectual Property Office). It was approved at the end of May, after which the patent was publicly published on 24 June 2019. There are 14 sketches on which a modern designed smartphone can be seen. With the so-known edge display from Samsung.Read Also: Samsung Galaxy Note 10 to hit South-Korea stores by August 23
The patent that Samsung has filed is official and approved. This means that the company can manufacture a device similar to what is shown in the images. There are several reasons to present the patent of a project, so we do not know if Samsung is willing to launch this terminal or simply wants to safeguard an idea.
In the images, you can see perfectly the idea of the company. Instead of folding the screen this new device would have a system of rails to move a secondary screen. It may seem very futuristic, although it really is just another mechanism, like the one we saw for the folding terminal.
Some media are beginning to say that it is the Galaxy S11, something very unlikely. Samsung may launch something similar in 2020. but much should change things to be in the next releases of the Galaxy S series.
The idea of the patent is interesting because when you need more space on the screen you just need to expand the screen. The problems we have seen in the Galaxy Fold would not affect this device. Because the durability could be greater by not having a flexible screen.
Even so, it is early to be able to talk about this device in a real way. Samsung has simply presented the patent and it will not be for a long time when it can confirm or deny the existence of such a mobile.
Samsung Galaxy Note 10+ design confirmed via FCC photos
The Samsung Galaxy Note 10 is arriving on the 7th of August in multiple variants and a myriad of leaks have already given away to the design of the phablet. From the digital renders for the Galaxy Note 10 and the Galaxy Note 10+, we have learned that the two models will come with expansive displays with almost no bezels. While Samsung had steered away from the notch trend – at least for its flagships, it is opting for a hole-punch cutout for the front camera on the Note 10 series to minimize the bezels even further. Now, we have evidence of the Galaxy Note 10+ visiting the FCC along with images in the listing to confirm that these leaks about Samsung’s changed design philosophy are true.
Recent leaks of the official images by tipster Ishan Agarwal also reveal the slick gradient finishes that the Galaxy Note 10/10+ will come in. Besides, there have been several speculative rumors or leaks for the protective tempered glasses and covers/cases for the smartphone. Although these are not the first live images of the Galaxy Note 10+ that we’re getting to see – YouTube Mr_TechTalkTV allegedly shared hands-on images of the phablet, the FCC listing definitely makes the case more reliable and trustworthy.
From the images, we can see the triple camera array along with an offset camera, probably a depth sensor, on the back of the Galaxy Note 10+. This corresponds to both – the digital renders divulged by @OnLeaks last month as well as the images shared by Ishan. There’s another sensor underneath the purported depth sensor but we’re not sure of its utility.
Evidently, Samsung is finally dropping the headphone jack from the Galaxy Note 10+ along with the infamousdedicated Bixby button. The power button and the volume rocker sit on the left of the smartphone and since there’s no physical fingerprint scanner, we expect an ultrasonic under-display fingerprint scanner, just like the Galaxy S10 series.
We can also very much see the hole-punch camera in the center – which was more-or-less confirmed by the official teaser for the Samsung Galaxy Unpacked event. The listing also shows an earpiece above this camera.
As typical to the Galaxy Note lineup, there’ll be an S-Pen, which charges wirelessly, just like the previous generations of the Note phablets. Furthermore, the dimensions proposed by OnLeaks (162.3 x 77.4 x 7.9mm) match the original dimensions of the smartphone as tested by the FCC. This adds to the credibility and reliability of the leaker.
In terms of connectivity, the Galaxy Note 10+ supports dual-band Wi-Fi, including support for Wi-Fi 6 aka 802.11ax alongside the previous 802.11a/g/b/n/ac standards. It comes with Bluetooth 5.0 as well as LTE but there’s no 5G on this model yet. There’s another variant which is listed on FCC but we’re still waiting for the details to populate so that we know better if it is the Note 10 or the 5G variant of the phablet.
Europe to develop reusable rockets to fend off SpaceX dominance
No one country can claim monopoly or sovereignty of the vastness of outer space. They can, however, claim superiority in the technologies that will take equipment and humans there. For the past years, space tech news has mostly revolved around SpaceX and, to a lesser extent, Blue Origin, both US companies. Other countries like China and even Russia aren’t sitting still and now the European Commission is making a move as well. It has just greenlit a three-year project to develop its own reusable rockets.
This is an almost complete U-turn from the sentiments and opinions in Europe back when SpaceX was still at its infancy. Then again, the entire rocket industry seemed to think Musk was bonkers and that landing rockets vertically would never be viable. SpaceX, of course, proved it could be done and now other companies and countries are scrambling to recreate that success.
Europe, however, had a slightly different objection to the idea of reusing rockets. Compared to the US and China, the region is relatively small and launched very few rockets a year. Reusing those rockets would, in other words, put rocket manufacturers out of business.
The new Retropropulsion Assisted Landing Technologies project or RETALT, however, basically acknowledges that it’s the unavoidable future. It also admits that Europe is only just getting started in developing something that’s already state-of-the-art in the US. It doesn’t directly address the economical repercussions of the technology but that seems to be where the market is heading anyway.
The Commission has allotted 3 million EUR ($3.4M) for RETALT. It isn’t shy to admit that one of its goals is to pretty much replicate the Falcon 9. It does, however, also have plans on developing a single-stage-to-orbit rocket to get ahead of other regions.
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